Friday, May 29, 2020

Election 2020: Massachusetts

I do enjoy the political fray.  And there's more going on out there than a battle between two old men!  In one instance, it's a battle between an old man and a young man.  The battle ground is Massachusetts, and the contest is an intra-party battle for the U.S. Senate seat.  It is currently in Democratic hands and it will most certainly remain in Democratic hands, but who's actual hands is the question.

Massachusetts is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the union.  There really aren't that many, and even among them it's not like Idaho for the Republicans--it's not a perfect deal.  Still for a very long time the near total majority of Federal Congress persons have been Democrats: House and Senate.  It's a fact that has also painted Massachusetts as a bastion of liberal sentiments.  And compared to Idaho, sure.  But like everything else, this liberal reputation wasn't without it's obvious contradictions. 

Take the issue of gender.  Two women represented the state in the House of Representatives between 1967 and 1983.  One only served a single term, Democrat Louise Day Hicks.  She won her seat promising to oppose busing for school integration, and then failed to deliver and was defeated two years later.  The other was Republican Margaret Heckler who served the citizens of Massachusetts through 8 terms for 16 years.  She still holds the record for longest serving woman in the House from Massachusetts.  Then from January of 1983 to January of 2007, only men represented one of the most "liberal" states in America--24 years!

The drought was broken by the election of Nikki Tsongas.  Elected a decade after the death of her husband who had served as both a Representative and Senator from Massachusetts, and was a presidential candidate in 1992; she was no stranger to politics and served for 14 years (7 terms).  For the majority of her tenure, she was the only woman representing Massachusetts in Congress.  In 2013 she was joined by Katherine Clark (full disclosure, I contribute to Representative Clark's 2012 campaign), and then upon her retirement, two more women were elected, Ayanna Pressley and Lori Trahan.  Today, in a House delegation of 9 three are women, and in the Senate, Elizabeth Warren splits the gender representation in half.  Still not parody, but a lot closer.

These recent electoral successes for women signal not only a new degree of gender equity, but also a generational changing of the guard in some cases, and that's really what the point of this post is about. 

Massachusetts is a state that has produced some of the most well-known and powerful Senators to serve in the Federal Legislature.  From John Quincy Adams and Daniel Webster to John and Ted Kennedy and Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts' Senators have and are leaving their mark on American politics.  In 2013, then House member Ed Markey made a bid for the seat vacated by John Kerry.  He won and he's since been a rather milk-toast Senator by comparison.  A fact that has led at least one other current House member to see an opening.  And not just any House member.  Perhaps not since John Quincy Adams has a member of a more storied American Political dynasty sought to elevate his profile of public service. 

Ed Markey, age 73, who served for 37 years in the House of Representatives (1976 - 2013) and then won a special election in June of 2013 for his Senate seat, a seat he has held for the past 7 years; now, stands in judgment of another politician.  His challenger is Representative Joe Kennedy...of the Kennedy's!  Joe, age 39, was born a month before Ed Markey won his third term to the House of Representatives.  You just can't accuse a Kennedy of being an underachiever. 

Where do things stand?  If I were a betting man, I'd let Senator Warren know she's about to have a ginger cutie as her "junior" Senator from the great Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

POLES:

UMass Lowell Poll shows Kennedy over Markey 44% to 42% a +2% advantage
Emerson Poll shows Kennedy over Markey 58% to 42% a +16 advantage

The Emerson poll did not allow participants to choose "undecided".  It could just be a name recognition thing, but with a name like Kennedy, that means something.
 Senator Ed Markey
Representative Joe Kennedy III

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