Thursday, October 22, 2026

Midterm Blue Wave Senate: Midwest

 Midwest as defined by my fifth grade teacher way back when!  This third installment continues my look at the U. S. Senate now and post election day (November 3) with a tilt toward the coming Blue Wave and my hopes for a Democratic majority in the end.  The Midwest was once a reliably Democratic stronghold, which in the past 20 years has morphed into Red and purple battle ground states.  The transformation has accompanied a general loss of blue collar labor intensive factory jobs without a viable collective plan for replacement and renewal.  


There are four Senate seats in play.  One of the most interesting pits an appointed Republican against a former longtime incumbent seeking a return to the Senate in Ohio.  The other three: Kentucky, Illinois, and Michigan are all open seats.  Of these, Illinois is certainly going to the incumbent party (Democrats), and Kentucky will do the same for the Republicans.  New blood, old ideologies.  This leaves us with Michigan where a bold choice in the primary could send the first openly Muslim Senator to Congress (Abdul El-Sayed).  In my estimation, only Kentucky goes for a Republican, while Illinois, Michigan and Ohio send Democrats to the 119th Congress, second term.  Ohio represents a second pick-up for the Democrats, joining New England's Maine.

Wisconsin, once a liberal bastion and Democratic stranghold has become the epitome of the magical "Purple" Swing State.  The Senior Senator is Ron Johnson who honestly stands for little more than what's best for Ron Johnson.  In recent years, he's been non-existent, until his vote is needed to push forward some Fascist legislation from the Trump administration.  The Yin to his Yang is the Junior Senator, Tammy Baldwin.  The first openly Lesbian Senator, she is the quintessential progressive pushing the boundaries of human rights and gender equality.  There's something for everyone in Wisconsin.
Illinois Senior Senator in this Congress is Dick Durbin (one of my absolute favorite Senators, so smart, so quick-witted, he should have been the Senate Leader over schumer, a mon avis) who is not running for re-election.  This makes Senator Tammy Duckworth the new Senior Senator and an excellent Senator is she.  An Iraq War veteran who lost both of her legs in combat, she is a fearless warrior for Veterans, Women, Citizens of Color and the Disability Community.  The presumed freshman Junior Senator will be Juliana Stratton who currently serves as Illinois Lieutenant Governor.  She brings to 3 the number of African American women in the Senate for a new record.  
Kentucky's new Senior Senator will be Rand Paul.  One of the truly idiocycratic members of the Senate, Paul is a force of one.  Though he votes most of the time with his party, he is not above taking an illogical, ill-informed stance on a hill that no one else is ready to die on.  He's an odd ball.  Andy Barr will most likely be the newly elected Junior Senator.  Barr is a Trump loyalist who is currently serving in the House of Representatives.
Indiana's Senators are both in their first terms and together represent one of the youngest cohorts in the Senate.  Both vote straight party line which is to say they vote for whatever Trump wants.  And like the majority of Republicans, their Demographic profiles read: Male, White, Christian, with Physical Disability.
When it comes to the battle for control of the Senate, Ohio is one of the many pivotal races.  The mishigas of political storms railing the atmosphere of this state is fodder for reality TV.  The Senior Senator's daughter is married to a Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives and she has alleged marital and child abuse against him.  Her father, the Senior Senator Bernie Moreno, has declared him unfit to serve and now his seat is a toss-up and probable defeat for the Republicans.  The Junior Senator was appointed by the Governor to fill Vice President J.D. Vance's term, and now he must be formally elected to keep his seat.  Sherrod Brown was one of the most populous oriented Democratic Senators with a tenure of 18 years, when he was narrowly defeated by Senator Moreno in 2023.  Are you still with me?  The incumbent Junior Senator, Jon Husted, spent too much time extolling the economic benefits of Data Centers...Waa waa waaaaa.  Now, Sherrod Brown is using this fortunate misstep of Husted to draw a clear populous distinction between the two.  A distinction that is making a difference in the polls.  Ergo, Brown should win a fourth term in the Senate.
Michigan's Senior Senator is in her first term having won her seat by defeating the same Trump ally who once again is in a contest wit


h the Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed.  The best thing the Republican can offer up against El-Sayed are racist, islamophobic accusations, while the candidate clearly comes across as the very model of the American Dream come to life.  This is one of the most interesting Senatorial races on the docket for this class.  I believe that his character and his passion will overcome the bigotry that President Trump and his tenure have roiled up across Michigan and the nation.  

Index Time:  
By Demographic category

GENDER 4 out of 12 - 33; current score 25 (illustrated by the map)
RACE 3 out of 12 - 25; current score 8.3
RELIGION 3 out of 12 - 25; current score 16.7
DISABILITY 1 out of 12 - 8.3; current score 8.3

Diversity Index becomes 45.8 as compared to current index of 29.2  The higher the index, the greater the diversity.  To recap.

New England    -   8.3 
Mid-Atlantic    -  25.0
Midwest        - 45.8

Average age will go from 64 to 58.  



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