Mid-Term Blue Wave: Inner Mountain West

 I deviated a bit from Mrs. Spore's monocres.  She would have called these 8 states the Rocky Mountain States.  I have chosen to err on the side of a modern appendage that is also more accurate.  Be that as it may, were visiting 8 western states without a coastline on the Pacific Ocean.  They are Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico.  There are Senate races in 5 of these states, 3 of which will be easy victories for the incumbents: John Hickenlooper in Colorado, Jim Risch in Idaho, and Ben Lujan in New Mexico.  The incumbents in Wyoming and Montana, both Republicans, are retiring.  This has created two very different outcomes.  In Wyoming, the Republican candidate, Harriet Hageman is a shoe-in to win, while the race in Montana is very volatile with three candidates seeking the seat.  While that race is thought to be the Republican candidate's to lose; I'm banking on a discontent for both parties to lead to a victory for the independent.

Idaho's Senators are the oldest duo, both Republican.  And Both, Senior Senator Mike Crapo, and Junio Senator Jim Risch work hard to be unnoticed.  It is a strategy that a goodly number of Senators opt for.

Montana's Senior Senator is only about to enter his 3rd year in the Senate.  Should the election to the open seat go to the Independent candidate, Seth Bodnar would be the second Independent to join the Senate and would caucus with the Democrats.  

Wyoming's Senior Senator John Barrasso is a member of the current Senate Republican Leadership in the second role of Republican Whip.  The Junior Senator Harriet Hageman is a bit of a character and ascends to the position from her terms as Wyoming's sole member of the House of Representatives.  Her predicessor Cynthia Lummis was well known as a bringer-together-er.  Hageman has oft stated that her role in Washington is to be a fighter, not a consensus builder. 

Colorado's Senior Senator is an unlikely politician who was appointed to the Senate and then liked it and ran on his accord.  He's also a bit bored in the role and ran for the office of Colorado governor, but was defeated in the primary.  I have often watched him give speeches on the floor of the Senate in the evening sessions and I swear to you, his eloqution is such that you'd be forgiven if you'd think he was three sheets to the wind.  The state's Junior Senator was Colorado's governor before winning a seat in the Senate.  This year he's running for a second term that he will likely win.  Senator Hickenlooper often presents himself as the Senate's #1 stoner.  He's a very groovy guy.

While I don't know much about most of the senators from this region, they are not a showy lot by nature, Utah's Senior Senator would be an exception.  Mike Lee loves to speechify on the floor.  He has a very idiosyncratic style and loves to construct an argument in a manner that suggests if you do not see the issue in the same way as he does, you're an idiot.  It's quite fun to watch.  It's Junior Senator is a member of the great quiet unknown.

While neither of Nevada's senators are up for re-election his cycle, Senior Senator Catherine Cortez Masto managed to survive a nail-biter of an election in 2024.  Both she and Junior Senator Jacky Rosen are also background players.

As much as Utah Senator Lee loves the limelight, no one gets more of it from this region than Arizona's Senior Senator Mark Kelly.  Senator Kelly is on everyone's short list for Democratic Presidential candidate in 2028.  A mon avis, the jury's still out.  He's a good guy, and Junior Senator Ruben Gallego is Arizona's first Hispanic Senator, which almost seems incredulous.  No election in Arizona this cycle.

I'm going to go completely off of the reservation now.  New Mexico's Senior Senator Martin Heinrich is in my opinion the most handsome Senator of them all.  He's just so damn good looking.  He's also, if not one of the most, the most MIA Senator on the floor of the Senate.  He pops in for a vote and out he goes.  Junior Senator Ben Lujan is running for re-election and is expected to win easily.  Senator Lujan is far more visible on the Senator floor, a much better schmoozer.   

Index Time

By Demographic Category

GENDER 3 out of 16; current score 19

RACE 3 out of 16 - 19; current score 19

RELIGION 2 out of 16 - 13; current score 13

DISABLED 0 out of 16 - 0.0; current score 0.0

Diversity Index remains the same.

Average Age went from 64 to 62.

Mid-Term Blue Wave: GREAT PLAINS

 The Great Plains size up from the South along the western side of the Mississippi River all the way to the Canadian border.  The states to its west all run up to the Rocky Mountains, which is another region.  There are 8 states: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota and Minnesota.  Like the South, the upper Midwest was once reliable Democratic territory, but lost that with the rise of social consciousness in the Democratic Party to the detriment of Economic Issues.  

The success of the Blue Wave will be expressed in the Great Plains as powerfully as any other region.  With a total House delegation of 34, I'm counting on a Democratic gain of 7 seats.  In the Senate there are 6 seats on the docket, and three are competitive.  Should they prevail, this will definitely go down as the "Purpling of America" mid-term election.

I will confess that I know a lot less about the Senators from this region, especially the stack of states from Oklahoma to North Dakota.  Take notes ginger James Lankford of Oklahoma and female Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska out of the mix, and I'd have a hard time identifying who is who!  Nevertheless, here we go. 

North Dakota's Senators are two white men.  John Hoeven was once the State's Governor.  Kevin Cramer made his way to his seat via the North Dakota's only House seat.  Hoeven is a right of center moderate and Cramer is a Pentecostal who hates abortion, denies climate change, wants to cut food stamps and school lunch programs and believes what every baby really needs is an open-carry permit.  Neither are up for re-election this year.

South Dakota's Senior Senator, John Thune, is also the Republican Leader of the Senate.  After decades of grooming himself for the opportunity, he now finds himself playing the straight guy to Trump's banal clown act.  Pity the fool...  Mike Rounds is the states Junior Senator and will likely be re-elected for another term on Novermber 3rd.  Unlike so many of his colleagues, Rounds is willing to cross the aisle and work with Democrats to craft and pass bi-partisan legislation.  I admire him for that.

Minnesota is represented by two women, Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith.  Smith chose to retire leaving an open seat, which Democrat Peggy Flanagan is likely to win.  If elected, Flanagan, whose birth name is Gizhiiwewidamookwe, is a citizen of the White Earth Nation of the Ojibwe tribe in Minnesota which would make her the first Indigenous woman to be elected to the Senate (Although not the only one this election cycle).  Senator Klobuchar is also running for Governor of Minnesota and will almost certainly win that seat thus triggering the second special election before the dust from this one has even settled.  

Nebraska's Senior Senator is the only other woman from the Great Plains region serving in the Senate.  Deb Fischer is largely a behind the scenes player with interests in Agriculture and border security.  When elected, she will be joined by Junior Senitor Dan Osborn.  Osborn is an independent who has stated that he will not caucus with either of the major parties.  The only other Independents in the Senate, Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democrats.  At a time when the term "populist politician" is getting tossed all around, Osborn appears to be the real deal.  

Iowa's Senior Senator is the Senate's Senior Senator.  At 93, Chuck Grassley is the oldest.  He was, in fact just re-elected in November of 2024 to serve through January 3, 2030.  The man is very optimistic.  He's also frail and forgetful and struggles to read his prepared statements and speeches.  It's sad.  The seat for Junior Senator is an open seat and it's my hope that Josh Turek, currently an Iowa state Senator wins on Nevember 3rd.  He's smart.  He's compassionate.  And he knows what life is like for those with disadvantages.

Kansas Senior Senator is Jerry Moran.  I honestly don't think I've every recognized the man on the floor of the Senate.  He just walks around and fits in like a shadow.  His Senate mate is even less of a figure, and now he may not be anything of a figure, if Adam Hamilton pulls through to win.  This is a seat that garnered next to no attention at the beginning of this cycle.  Then Adam Hamilton, a Methodist Minister, turned on the spotlight and suddenly what was once safe is now a toss-up.  Another populist insurrection from the center left.

No one is up for re-election in Missouri.  Senior Senator Josh Hawley runs bi-polar, at once a fist bumper to the January 6 insurrectionists and then a champion of those on Medicaide and Medicare...  Eric Schmitt is a jerk.

Full disclosure, my mama's people are Okie's.  Senior Senator James Lankford is a conservative Republic who is willing to compromise in order to move the ball forward.  At the beginning of the Trump 2.0 presidency, he crafted in company with his Democrated colleagues a path forward to keep the government open, and Trump seemed to encourage his actions, until the end when Trump rejected the entire thing.  It must be hard to be a reasonable Republican in times like these.  The Junior Senator's seat is open and most certainly will be filled by Kevin Hearn who stepping up from the ranks of Oklahoma's House delegation.

Index Time

By Demographic Category

GENDER 3 out of 16 - 19; current score 25

RACE 1 out of 16 - 6; current score 0.0

RELIGION 0 out of 16 - 0.0; current score 0.0

DISABILITY 1 out of 61 - 6; current score 0.0

Diversity Index becomes 31.3 as compared to the current index of 25.0

By region so far:

New England - 8.3

Mid-Atlantic - 25.0

Midwest - 45.8

The South - 50.0

Great Plains - 31.3

Average Age will go from 66 to 63.

Dinner: Mushroom Ragu

 

Mid Term Blue Wave Senate: THE SOUTH

 The South, according to Mrs. Spore, consists of 10 states: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas.  In this cycle of elections, ALL ten states have elections.  Four states have open seats (NC, AL, LA, and TX), two states (SC and FL) are hosting elections with appointed Senators seeking their first elected terms, and the rest (GA, MS, TN, and AR) have incumbents seeking re-election.  As a region, the median age of the likely new cadre of Senators will be one of the youngest in the country, setting up the possibility of a new power-base as seniority accrues.  

My choices are my fantasy, but they are not based on a lack of information or polling.  When the dust settles, if this Blue Wave manifests itself, this election may come to be known as the "re-Purple-ing" of America bringing a Democratic voice to regions with a recent history of Republican hegemony.

KEY

North Carolina's Senior Senator is only in his first term.  He's a Trump Accolite who previously served in the House of Representatives.  Roy Cooper will be the first Democrat to win a Republican seat on Election night.  Cooper has been a moderate Governor of the State guiding its choices down the middle of the road to the best of his abilities.  North Carolina will become a Purple state with his victory.

Tim Scott, the Senior Senator of South Carolina was initially elevated to the seat as an appointment after the Republican elected Senator Jim DeMint resigned in disgrace.  In 2013, he was officially elected to the Senate. In his second term, Scott is the longest serving African American Senator in the history of this nation.  Dr. Annie Andrews will be the first Democratic candidate to win a seat in the Senate from South Carolina since Democratic Senators were staunch segregationists.  It would be a new beginning for Democrats in the state.

Georgia is either an outlier with two Democratic Senators or a harbinger of a changing South.  This election may give us some real insight into which it is.  While Jon Ossoff is the Senior Senator, both he and Junior Senator Raphael Warnock were first elected in the same year.  With this year's victory, both well have been reelected giving the idea that they are somehow a fluke no credence.  

Florida's Senior Senator is a former Healthcare executive who has done everything within his power to support the raping of American by the Pharmacuetical/Healthcare Industrial Complexes.  He could care less about the poor or needy.  Should she win, and I grant you, my including Angie Nixon in this post is my most aspirational stretch for a 2026 mid-term win.  She would be the polar opposite to Scott.  Black, a woman, raised in a lower-middle class setting and a passion for a government that supports and empowers the common folks.

Senior Senator Katie Britt is in her first term.  Besides her love of Jesus I really don't know what else makes her happy.  The RNC has used her to motivate women to support the party, which may be her greatest contribution as a Senator to this point.  The election of Barry Moore will maintain Republican uninimity for representation from Alabama.  Moore is currently a member of the House delegation from Alabama.

Senior Senator Roger Wicker is one of the last remaining members of the first Republican wave in the Senate back in oughts.  He is an old school politician who would prefer to spend his time legislating than kissing a sycophantic President's bulbous ass.  I sometimes feel sorry for him--he's trapped in a world of Trumpian vitriol and mean-spiritedness.  Colom winning is another fantasy pic, but one with more than a spot of Karma should it come to pass.  He was nominated for a Federal Judgeship under Biden with what was thought to be both Wicker and present incumbent Hyde-Smith's acquaintance.  Then old Cindy got wind that Colom believes Transfolks are actually people, too.  Sorry Roger, Cindy pulled her blue card and left him high and dry...

Tennessee's Junior Senator Hagerty is coasting to re-election.  It will be his second term.  A legislator of no consequence.  It's Senior Senator Marsha Blackburn, on the other hand, is well versed at stealing all of the oxygen out of any room she enters.  A real firebrand on the Judiciary Committee in particular; however, she is also running for and expected to win the Governorship of Tennessee.  There will be a special election before the dust settles on this one.

Arkansas Senior Senator John Boozman is another milktoast legislator.  I can't think of a single thing he's sponsored in his 14 years in the Senate.  He's got to be thanking his lucky stars that he's not up for re-election this cycle.  As Chairman of the Senate Agricultural Committee, he'd be up Shit Creek to have to defend this administrations farming policies!  The Junior Senator is up for re-election.  Senator Tom Cotton entered the Senate with a little group of other recent Iraq War Veterans.  While it's been long assumed that Arkansas was a safe seat for Republicans, it's also one that has seen obscene amounts of spending to ensure that it is so.

Senior Senator John Kennedy is another thoughback to a more genteel time in the Senate--it's easy to picture him dressed in a white Sear's Sucker Suite hold a mint julep in one hand while dabbed beads of sweat off of his brow with a proper kerchief in the other.  I love to watch him in action.  He delights himself with his own clever little zingers during committee cross examinations of appointees.  The soon-to-be Junior Senator came to this race in one of the most bizarre of manners.  The wife of a House candidate who was elected in 2018 and then widowed when he died of Covid-19!  She won election the seat, and then was christened by Trump to this seat after Trump cursed the former incumbent, leading to his loss in the primary.  Whew!  But unlike other freshman Republican, Letlow is sharp and driven.  I feel like only a fool would underestimate her potential.

Texas' Senior Senator is Ted Cruz.  Its soon to be Junior Senator is James Talarico.  Talarico will do what Democrats have been unable to do since June 13, 1993, put a Democrat's butt in a seat set aside for a Democrat from the state of Texas.

Index Time

By Demographic Category

GENDER 5 out of 20; 25; current score 25

RACE 4 out of 20 - 20; current score 10

RELIGION 1 out of 20 - 5; current score 5

DISABILITY 0 out of 20 - 0.0; current score 0.0

Diversity Index becomes 50.0 as compared to the current index of 40.0

By region so far:

New England - 8.3

Mid-Atlantic - 25.0

Midwest - 45.8

The South - 50.0

Average Age will go from 64 to 57.

Midterm Blue Wave Senate: MIDWEST

 Midwest as defined by my fifth grade teacher way back when!  This third installment continues my look at the U. S. Senate now and post election day (November 3) with a tilt toward the coming Blue Wave and my hopes for a Democratic majority in the end.  The Midwest was once a reliably Democratic stronghold, which in the past 20 years has morphed into Red and purple battle ground states.  The transformation has accompanied a general loss of blue collar labor intensive factory jobs without a viable collective plan for replacement and renewal.  

There are four Senate seats in play.  One of the most interesting pits an appointed Republican against a former longtime incumbent seeking a return to the Senate in Ohio.  The other three: Kentucky, Illinois, and Michigan are all open seats.  Of these, Illinois is certainly going to the incumbent party (Democrats), and Kentucky will do the same for the Republicans.  New blood, old ideologies.  This leaves us with Michigan where a bold choice in the primary could send the first openly Muslim Senator to Congress (Abdul El-Sayed).  In my estimation, only Kentucky goes for a Republican, while Illinois, Michigan and Ohio send Democrats to the 119th Congress, second term.  Ohio represents a second pick-up for the Democrats, joining New England's Maine.

Wisconsin, once a liberal bastion and Democratic stranghold has become the epitome of the magical "Purple" Swing State.  The Senior Senator is Ron Johnson who honestly stands for little more than what's best for Ron Johnson.  In recent years, he's been non-existent, until his vote is needed to push forward some Fascist legislation from the Trump administration.  The Yin to his Yang is the Junior Senator, Tammy Baldwin.  The first openly Lesbian Senator, she is the quintessential progressive pushing the boundaries of human rights and gender equality.  There's something for everyone in Wisconsin.

Illinois Senior Senator in this Congress is Dick Durbin (one of my absolute favorite Senators, so smart, so quick-witted, he should have been the Senate Leader over schumer, a mon avis) who is not running for re-election.  This makes Senator Tammy Duckworth the new Senior Senator and an excellent Senator is she.  An Iraq War veteran who lost both of her legs in combat, she is a fearless warrior for Veterans, Women, Citizens of Color and the Disability Community.  The presumed freshman Junior Senator will be Juliana Stratton who currently serves as Illinois Lieutenant Governor.  She brings to 3 the number of African American women in the Senate for a new record.  

Kentucky's new Senior Senator will be Rand Paul.  One of the truly idiocycratic members of the Senate, Paul is a force of one.  Though he votes most of the time with his party, he is not above taking an illogical, ill-informed stance on a hill that no one else is ready to die on.  He's an odd ball.  Andy Barr will most likely be the newly elected Junior Senator.  Barr is a Trump loyalist who is currently serving in the House of Representatives.

Indiana's Senators are both in their first terms and together represent one of the youngest cohorts in the Senate.  Both vote straight party line which is to say they vote for whatever Trump wants.  And like the majority of Republicans, their Demographic profiles read: Male, White, Christian, with Physical Disability.

When it comes to the battle for control of the Senate, Ohio is one of the many pivotal races.  The mishigas of political storms railing the atmosphere of this state is fodder for reality TV.  The Senior Senator's daughter is married to a Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives and she has alleged marital and child abuse against him.  Her father, the Senior Senator Bernie Moreno, has declared him unfit to serve and now his seat is a toss-up and probable defeat for the Republicans.  The Junior Senator was appointed by the Governor to fill Vice President J.D. Vance's term, and now he must be formally elected to keep his seat.  Sherrod Brown was one of the most populous oriented Democratic Senators with a tenure of 18 years, when he was narrowly defeated by Senator Moreno in 2023.  Are you still with me?  The incumbent Junior Senator, Jon Husted, spent too much time extolling the economic benefits of Data Centers...Waa waa waaaaa.  Now, Sherrod Brown is using this fortunate misstep of Husted to draw a clear populous distinction between the two.  A distinction that is making a difference in the polls.  Ergo, Brown should win a fourth term in the Senate.

Michigan's Senior Senator is in her first term having won her seat by defeating the same Trump ally who once again is in a contest wit

h the Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed.  The best thing the Republican can offer up against El-Sayed are racist, islamophobic accusations, while the candidate clearly comes across as the very model of the American Dream come to life.  This is one of the most interesting Senatorial races on the docket for this class.  I believe that his character and his passion will overcome the bigotry that President Trump and his tenure have roiled up across Michigan and the nation.  

Index Time:  

By Demographic category

GENDER 4 out of 12 - 33; current score 25 (illustrated by the map)

RACE 3 out of 12 - 25; current score 8.3

RELIGION 3 out of 12 - 25; current score 16.7

DISABILITY 1 out of 12 - 8.3; current score 8.3

Diversity Index becomes 45.8 as compared to current index of 29.2  The higher the index, the greater the diversity.  To recap.

New England    -   8.3 

Mid-Atlantic    -  25.0

Midwest        - 45.8

Average age will go from 64 to 58.  

Midterm Blue Wave Senate: MID-ATLANTIC

 The next stop on my Midterm Senate fantasy tour is the Mid-Atlantic region comprised of seven states: New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia.  The same set of demographics as before: Gender, Race/Ethnicity, Religion, Disability and Age.  All of which will form the basis for a diversity index score.  Of the seven states there are only Senate races in 4: New Jersey, Delaware, West Virginia, and Virginia.  In all cases popular incumbents have wide leads.  The result is likely to be zero change from the status quo.  The states of New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia are served by two Democratic Senators.  The state of West Virginia is served by two Republican Senators.  This leaves Pennsylvania as an odd bird among states with split representation.

New York's Senior Senator holds the top position for the Democratic Party in the Senate.  Chuck Schumer is an old school politician who has been a member of Congress since 1993.  After nine terms Representing New York City in various districts: 16th, 10th, and 9th District, he ran for Senate in 1998 and defeated Republican firebrand, Al D'Amato.  Venerable hand-shaker/deal-maker, Schumer was elected to the role of Leader of the Senate in 2017.  The Junior Senator was elected to the seat previously held by former First Lady, Hillary Clinton.  In 2019, Kirsten Gillibrand ran in a crowded field for the Democratic nomination for the presidency.  She began her candidacy in March of 2019, and dropped out in August.  She has been particularly passionate about the fare treatment of our military veterans.

Pennsylvania is one of only three states with a divided Senatorial delegation.  The Senior Senator, John Fetter was elected as a maverick in a race against a Trump loyalist and TV Commentator.  The win was the only one Democrats managed to eke out of a Trump windfall year.  His tenure has been marked by recovery from a stroke, opposition to many progressive Democratic ideals, and finally a AWOL status regarding participation in Senate business.  Dave McCorkmick was elected the following year defeating a longtime Democratic incumbent by a narrow margin.  But a win is ALWAYS a win. 

New Jersey's Senior Senator also participated in the Presidential Campaign of 2019.  And like Gillibrand, Corey Booker failed to make the cut.  He is known as an exuberant and even at times excitable present on the floor of the Senate.  His New Jersey partner and Junior Senator was just elected to the seat during the 2024 campaign.  Andy Kim is the only member of the Senate from a Korean ethnic background.  Together they form one of the youngest Senatorial Delegations.

Chris Coons is the Senior Senator from the state of Delaware.  Affiable character on the Senate floor.  You often see him roaming from one group of Senators to another to partake in chit chat.  The Junior Senator, Lisa Blunt Rochester is one of two African American Senators, both of whom were just elected to office in November of 2024.

Maryland is my home!  And I love both of my Senators.  Chris Van Hollen was first elected in 2016.  He's focused on the work of the Department of State, Immmigration Issues, and Constituency Services.  He's also the least wealthy of all the Senators with a net worth that is lower than my own.  Electing Angela Alsobrooks in 2024 was one of my favorite votes.  She is whip smart and brings a perspective to the Senate that it desperately needs.  I'm expecting great things from her.

Virginia's delegation is one of the longest serving duos.  Senior Senator Mark Warner is cruising to re-election.  A businessman with a long reputation of working across the aisle when in the minority.  He is problem solver and a great asset to the Senate.  Junior Senator Tim Kane briefly came to national attention when Hillary Clinton chose him as her running mate in 2015.  Tim is a genial guy who also works across the aisle to craft bi-partisan legislation.

West Virginia was one of the most Blue states for over a century.  One of its most favored "sons" was Senator Robert Byrd who is also the longest serving Senator in the history of the Senate.  When he retired in 2010 after over 51 years of tenure, the current Senior Senator, Shelly Capito was elected breaking the Blue bubble.  She started out as a moderate Republican, and grew with the party to be a mostly "yes" vote to Trump's whims.  I liked her until I learned how many of her own relatives she's managed to get into positions of state and local offices.  The West Virginia bubble turned red in 2022 when Jim Justice was elected.  Junior Senator Jim Justice came to the Senate hot off the Governor's office, and he is the wealthiest person in the Senate with a net worth of about $675,000,000.00.   Money was obtained through the mining of coal and income obtained from the Greenbrier Estate in southern West Virginia.

Index Time:  

By Demographic category

GENDER 4 out of 14 - 29; current score 29 (illustrated by the map)

RACE 4 out of 14 - 29; current score 29

RELIGION 1 out of 14 - 7; current score 7

DISABILITY 0 out of 14 - 0; current score 0

Diversity Index remains at 25.0 as compared to New England's of 8.3

Average age will remain 63.