Randuwa II

Friday, October 2, 2020

Senate Polls Sept 12 - Oct 2

I've done similar graphics for the races for the Senate. As you will recall, the seats in the senate are staggered with a 1/3 of seats being decided every two years. This creates "classes" of 33, 33, and 34 members. This years class consists of 33 members; however, there are 34 contests because a senator from another class resigned. Therefore, Georgia is electing both of its Senators this November. One to a full term, and the other to complete the remaining years for the Senator who resigned. More on this presently.

In setting up the map, I represented the states with the color of the party of the incumbent. As incumbents have a significant advantage, this made the most sense. As polls appear, I changed those colors to reflect the results of the polls.

From here the process was the same as that of the Presidential Poll map: When there was more than one poll, I averaged the results. The ratings work like this:

5% or above = Likely win
2% to 4.9 = Leaning toward a win
1% to 1.9% = Barely a win

A tie constitutes any result of an average below 1%. The color of the dot shows which candidate has the whisker's thickness of an advantage.

In subsequent weeks the new polls are reflected, but if no new poll exists, the previous week's results remain. A week is constituted as seven days from Saturday to the following Friday.

I promised a return to Georgia...each state determines the rules regarding how candidates are chosen and elections are run to seat and replace members of the Congress, Senate and House alike. In all states, the process for elections held in the normal cycle involved parties qualifying, holding primaries if necessary, and putting for a single representative of their party for consideration. Things get interesting when replacing candidates who leave office before their term expires. In Georgia, the governor appoints a replacement, who then stands for re-election in an open field election at the next standard election date. In other words, anyone can run as long as they obtain the minimal number of signatures on a petition and otherwise meet all of the criteria.

In Georgia's scheduled race, incumbent Sonny Perdue, a Republican, is facing off against Democratic challenger Joel Ossoff. Currently, Perdue holds a 4% point advantage of Ossoff. In the other race, the governor appointed Kelly Loeffler and she is seeking election to a full term in a field of at least 6 other contenders. Her chief opponent has been former Representative Doug Collins--a Trump Loyalist; however, a Democratic candidate, African American Rev. Raphael Warnock is surging in the polls. This last week he ended up 8% points higher than his nearest candidate! This is amazing. Georgia could prove to be one of the biggest stories to emerge in this unprecedented election year.

Presidential Poles Sept 12 - Oct 2

I am a pole watcher. I still think they are our best window into what is going on. And thanks for Nate Silver's 537 organization, we also have statistical analysis of dozens and dozens of national, collegiate and would be pollsters. In compiling these graphics, I have only included organizations that attain a B- rating and above. Some of the most reliable polling organizations include: Washington Post, New York Times, NBC, CBS, ABC, FOXnews; Monmouth, Marist, Sienna, and Emerson Universities/Colleges. Among those that do not make the grade are Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna College (though they are prolific spinners of polls).

How I set up the map. I went back 5 elections and assigned all the states the color that match the majority of wins by Dems or Reps. Next I recorded all the polls I could find from reputable pollsters on sights like Real Clear Politics and 270 to Win. When there was more than one poll, I averaged the results. The ratings work like this:

5% or above = Likely win
2% to 4.9 = Leaning toward a win
1% to 1.9% = Barely a win

A tie constitutes any result of an average below 1%. The color of the dot shows which candidate has the whisker's thickness of an advantage.

In subsequent weeks the new polls are reflected, but if no new poll exists, the previous week's results remain. A week is constituted as seven days from Saturday to the following Friday.