The thing about the Senate is, you cannot redistrict it ever. But what you can do is disenfranchise other voters by absurdly partisan gerrymandering so as to energize them to vote where they can be heard: the Senate candidate.
The Current Lay of the Land: December 1, 2025
First off: Blessed are the citizens of Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin, for they have no incumbent or open Senate seats over which to contest. It's like drawing a bye in a sports tournament. There are, with two special elections in Ohio and Florida--both held by Republicans appointed to fill vacant seats; 35 elections in November 2026.
9 of these seats will have no incumbent to contest them. The remaining 26 will. 9 of those are held by Democrats, and 17 others are held by Republicans. The most important thing to know about where the bets are being laid is the Democrats have an unprecedented advantage. Let's look at the recent Virginia Elections for Governor this past November 4th.
9 of these seats will have no incumbent to contest them. The remaining 26 will. 9 of those are held by Democrats, and 17 others are held by Republicans. The most important thing to know about where the bets are being laid is the Democrats have an unprecedented advantage. Let's look at the recent Virginia Elections for Governor this past November 4th.
The change is extraordinary. Clearly the shifts in Northern Virginia, and in the Norfolk region indicate negative responses to DOGE and DOD policies, but far western Virginia!! These seismic shifts are not possible without considerable Republican crossover. Mayor elect Mamdani of New York City can thank Wise County Virginia for Trump's tongue up his ass during their recent White House visit. Trump knows which way the winds are blowing.
Given this completely sane and predictable backlash that shows no signs of dissipating with an Administration that shows little ability to back down, Democrats are left with the perfect Tsunami on the 2026 midterm horizon.
Of the incumbent seats, much ado has been made about Jon Ossoff in Georgia. A white, Democratic, Jew. Given that Georgia just elected two Democratic members to a statewide utilities board because they were the ONLY names on the ballot that they could use to register their anger? Ossoff is safe. He'll need to work for it, but he will win, and in so going signal a new "Purple" status for the state of Georgia.
Of the open seats I predict we will take: North Carolina and Iowa. Add Maine, after Collins goes down, and this will create a 50/50 Senate where the Republican VP still gets to break ties. But committees are split allowing legislation and nominations to languish without consensus. In a world so bitterly divided--I can live with that.
But wait, there's more: it only takes one additional win to put the power back in the hands of the Democrats. I hope that Democrats will use this to push forward Gen Z candidates who can ignite the imagination of voters for a better economic future.
Given this completely sane and predictable backlash that shows no signs of dissipating with an Administration that shows little ability to back down, Democrats are left with the perfect Tsunami on the 2026 midterm horizon.
Of the incumbent seats, much ado has been made about Jon Ossoff in Georgia. A white, Democratic, Jew. Given that Georgia just elected two Democratic members to a statewide utilities board because they were the ONLY names on the ballot that they could use to register their anger? Ossoff is safe. He'll need to work for it, but he will win, and in so going signal a new "Purple" status for the state of Georgia.
Of the open seats I predict we will take: North Carolina and Iowa. Add Maine, after Collins goes down, and this will create a 50/50 Senate where the Republican VP still gets to break ties. But committees are split allowing legislation and nominations to languish without consensus. In a world so bitterly divided--I can live with that.
But wait, there's more: it only takes one additional win to put the power back in the hands of the Democrats. I hope that Democrats will use this to push forward Gen Z candidates who can ignite the imagination of voters for a better economic future.
In proposing such a strategy, I would target 7 states: ALASKA, FLORIDA, KANSAS, KENTUCKY, NEBRASKA, SOUTH CAROLINA, and TEXAS. All we need is one. The more conservative the Republicans become to hold their mythical base, the better situated we are to reach the majority of voters.
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