May I Predict a Shellacking?

 I apologize in advance.  This may be a bit long-winded.  

FACT: Donald Trump won the 2024 Presidential Election with a total of 77,302,580 votes.  This gave him 49.8% of all votes cast, leaving Harris with 48.3% or 75,017,613 votes.  When you break this down around the total number of eligible voters in the country, it gives both candidates percentages of just over and just under 30% respectively.  The reality is that Donald Trump was elected by 30.1% of the eligible voting public.  That's hardly a mandate, and it's certainly NOT a majority of Americans.  

I'm NOT suggesting that his election is in any way illegitimate.  He IS our president.  However, his agenda is a MINORITY agenda.  And like any majority agenda, the pendulum will swing. 

 
We have some really good evidence of this just 3 months into Trump's second term.  1) a landslide victory of a liberal justice in Wisconsin, whose opponent went out of their way to be the voice and face of President Trump in the Race.  2) Two house seats in deeply Republican districts in Florida where in November Republican candidates won with 30% and 31% margins, are retained; however the margins were slightly more than cut in half at 14.6% and 14% respectively.  And 3), Trumps choice for Ambassador to the United Nations, New York Representative Elisa Stefanik withdrawals her nomination because a replacement election is deemed too risky now, with only a 3 seat margin for Republican in the House of Representatives.  Stefanie won her seat with a margin of 25%.  

Everyone who thinks that Elise fell on her own sword, please, raise your hand...  Exactly.  

Would it surprise you to know that there are 76 seats held by Republicans in the House of Representatives where the margin of victory is less than 24%?  Here's one better, more realistic; there are 36 with margins of 14.6% or less?  These are the golden seats.  All the Democrats will need in November of 2026 is 4! 

 
Now, every state is different, and 19 months is a long time.  However, everything we can see and say of this administration is that it will be 19 months of discrimination, inflation and alienation.  They've already shut the doors of equality to Gays, African Americans, Muslims, Hispanics, Government workers, all of those who depend on Government support, and a trade war that will have devastating effects on small business owners, farmers, and skyrocketing inflation that will effect EVERYONE.  For every newscast that features a faithful Trumper, there's another with someone admitted to buyer's remorse.  

Seats likely to switch:

STATE - SEAT - Margin of Republican victory in 2024

ALASKA - At Large - 2.0%
ARIZONA - 1 - 3.8%

ARIZONA - 2 - 9.0%

CALIFORNIA - 3 - 10.0%

CALIFORNIA - 22 - 6.8%

CALIFORNIA - 41 - 3.4%

COLORADO - 3 - 5.0%

COLORADO - 4 - 11.6%

COLORADO - 5 - 12.8%

COLORADO - 8 - 0.8%

FLORIDA - 7 - 13.0%

FLORIDA - 13 - 9.6%

FLORIDA - 15 - 12.4%

IOWA - 1 - 0.2%

IOWA - 3 - 3.8%

MICHIGAN - 4 - 11.7%

MICHIGAN - 10 - 6.1%

MONTANA - 1 - 7.7%

NEBRASKA - 2 - 1.8%

NEVADA - 2 - 10%

NEW JERSEY - 7 - 5.4%

NEW YORK - 1 - 10.4%

NEW YORK - 17 - 6.4%

NEW YORK - 19 - 2.2%

NORTH CAROLINA - 11 - 13.6%

OHIO - 15 - 13.0%

PENNSYLVANIA - 1 - 12.8%

PENNSYLVANIA - 7 - 1.0%

PENNSYLVANIA - 8 - 1.6%

PENNSYLVANIA - 10 - 1.2%

TEXAS - 15 - 14.2%

VIRGINIA - 1 - 12.8%
VIRGINIA - 2 - 3.8%

WISCONSIN - 2 NEW SEATS

I know you pessimists are saying, it'll never happen.  The sky is just going to continue falling...  Look at the last one.  Wisconsin is about to redraw its congregational districts in a way that will all but guarantee two seats will flip.  In a contest with a margin of 1 seat, there are more likely possibilities than there are ways to screw them up.  With the chaos created by both government employees and military cuts AND an unpopular Republican governor in Virginia, I would bet both of these seats will flip.  If the races just completed in Florida indicate the amount of disillusion in the sunshine state, then there are 3 more seats.  And on and on it goes.  This also bodes well for the Senate.  More thoughts on that to come.