I am a pole watcher. I still think they are our best window into what is going on. And thanks for Nate Silver's 537 organization, we also have statistical analysis of dozens and dozens of national, collegiate and would be pollsters. In compiling these graphics, I have only included organizations that attain a B- rating and above. Some of the most reliable polling organizations include: Washington Post, New York Times, NBC, CBS, ABC, FOXnews; Monmouth, Marist, Sienna, and Emerson Universities/Colleges. Among those that do not make the grade are Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna College (though they are prolific spinners of polls).
How I set up the map. I went back 5 elections and assigned all the states the color that match the majority of wins by Dems or Reps. Next I recorded all the polls I could find from reputable pollsters on sights like Real Clear Politics and 270 to Win. When there was more than one poll, I averaged the results. The ratings work like this:
5% or above = Likely win
2% to 4.9 = Leaning toward a win
1% to 1.9% = Barely a win
A tie constitutes any result of an average below 1%. The color of the dot shows which candidate has the whisker's thickness of an advantage.
In subsequent weeks the new polls are reflected, but if no new poll exists, the previous week's results remain. A week is constituted as seven days from Saturday to the following Friday.
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